This blog celebrated its first anniversary a few days ago. I hope you enjoy reading the articles that I try to offer you weekly as much as I enjoy writing them. I thank you in any case for your loyalty!
As you have certainly perceived, my interests are diverse and partly fluctuate depending on current events. Therefore, it seemed relevant to me this week to review the 42 (!) articles already written and assess to what extent their relevance has evolved, one year later. So, in purely chronological order:
- The issue of employment and layoffs in tech unfortunately remains current. Google recently announced having spent more than 2 billion dollars in compensation for the layoff of over 12,000 of its employees in 2023.
- The demographic challenge is increasingly resonating in the global media sphere. China will probably be the most impacted country and has embarked on a shift towards a more decidedly pro-natalist policy. In France, President Macron announced last month a desire to “rearm” France demographically, proposing a series of measures supposed to help women balance motherhood and professional life.
- The transformations in the world of work experienced in recent years, starting with teleworking during COVID, and more recently the rise of AI and its applications in business, pose an increasing threat to the sustainability of some so-called “white-collar” jobs. Some companies, like PayPal, have recently announced layoff plans supposedly attributable to the replacement of humans by artificial intelligence. The field of higher education seems to remain relatively impermeable to this movement, despite some timid attempts.
- The banking landscape has shown more resilience than in 2008 following the bankruptcy of SVB bank in the United States and the Credit Suisse-UBS merger in Switzerland. Notably, there was no “bank run”. Nevertheless, the rise in interest rates, still at historically high levels for the 21st century, continues to weigh on the banks’ balance sheets in the form of “unrealized losses“.
- The prospects for young graduates seem to be darkening. A recent Wall Street Journal article pointed out that MBA graduates remained unemployed for longer despite a robust job market for the moment. This phenomenon raises questions about the match between “supply” and “demand” for skills. At the same time, British universities have started to sound the alarm, worrying about their financial sustainability in view of the decline in the number of foreign students.
- Geopolitical tensions remain high and companies, as well as governments, are seeking to limit the harmful consequences that this context can have on their supply chains. For example, tensions between China and Taiwan are pushing some countries, led by the United States, to want to equip themselves with semiconductor production infrastructures – a phenomenon very clearly explained in the book Chip War by Chris Miller.
- The debate over the 4-day workweek and teleworking continues. In recent months, a growing number of companies, starting with the financial sector, however, seem to call for increased presence in the office. It appears that the fully online employee experience does not fully satisfy. The main reasons cited are facilitated collaboration, a desire to strengthen company culture, and in some cases, concerns about the confidentiality of exchanges and data. Faced with reluctance, some companies, like EY, have decided to step up by implementing strict controls that can lead to disciplinary sanctions. However, in many sectors, the issue remains thorny, the very tight labor market offering an advantage to employees.
- After reaching a peak in 2022, inflation has begun to decline in most developed economies but remains above the unofficial target set by central banks of 2% per year. This explains the desire of said central banks, notably the American FED and the European Central Bank, to keep interest rates at a high level. For businesses and households, these high rates could become increasingly problematic as fixed-rate loans coming due need to be extended and renegotiated.
- The situation at OpenAI has indeed calmed down, with CEO Sam Altman winning his influence battle against the supervisory board that had dismissed him. However, debates about future developments and the regulation of artificial intelligence remain more relevant than ever, from multiple perspectives: legal responsibility, protection of intellectual property rights related to training data, storage, use, and confidentiality of user data, etc.
- Finally, the financial markets continue to float in a gentle euphoria, driven by the strength of the economy and the hope of an imminent decrease in interest rates – despite recent announcements from the FED and the European Central Bank.
Conclusion of this overview: there will be no shortage of topics for 2024! Thanks again for following me – I really look forward to this 2nd year together.