As 2025 draws to a close, I would like to take a moment to reflect on five themes that, in my view, have had a particularly strong impact on this year and whose ripple effects will undoubtedly continue into 2026. These themes are presented in the order they came to mind, without any notion of prioritization.
The first theme is the isolationist shock imposed by the Trump 2.0 administration, a paradigm shift that abruptly marked the end of the hyper-globalization era that had dominated for decades. While the initial announcements were extremely aggressive, they have since been tempered, and shifts in posture have followed throughout the year, to the point where a tracker is almost necessary to keep up with the latest developments. Nevertheless, the U.S. administration has demonstrated its willingness to endure domestic pain such as higher inflation to make the country more resistant to external economic influences. Moreover, Washington has actively encouraged its allies, particularly in Europe, to adopt similar measures. This represents not just a policy change but a fundamental rethinking of global economic interdependence, and it will likely reshape trade, investment flows, and diplomatic relations for years to come.
The second theme is the alarming surge in government debt. France, now considered a poor performer within the eurozone, has faced political instability that makes any austerity measures virtually impossible, further aggravating the situation. Across the Atlantic, the United States is grappling with skyrocketing debt servicing costs. In response, Donald Trump has attempted to pressure the Federal Reserve into adopting a low-interest-rate policy, a move that threatens the independence of an institution that is a cornerstone of global monetary stability. This raises the specter of a severe inflationary rebound in the U.S., with potential spillover effects worldwide. The combination of fiscal fragility and political maneuvering has created a volatile environment that could define economic debates for years to come. Investors, policymakers, and citizens alike will need to navigate this uncertainty with caution.
The third theme, unsurprisingly, is the continued rise of artificial intelligence, accompanied by early warnings of a potential bubble forming. OpenAI has distributed deals and billions across the sector, while Nvidia shattered records by surpassing four trillion dollars in market capitalization, greater than France’s annual GDP. Meanwhile, China has dramatically entered the race with its DeepSeek model, signaling a new phase of global competition. Yet, concerns are mounting about the return on investment for AI initiatives. Recent performance issues with Google’s Gemini model have cast doubt on the wisdom of colossal investments in massive Nvidia-powered data centers. Oracle’s recent stock market setback, after months of strong performance, only adds to the uncertainty. The question now is whether the AI boom will sustain its momentum or face a painful correction. For businesses and governments betting heavily on AI, the stakes could not be higher.
Closely linked to the previous theme is the surge in cybercrime. Advances in AI have enabled the creation of increasingly sophisticated scams, but that is merely the tip of the iceberg. Behind the scenes, a shadow war between state actors threatens critical infrastructure almost daily, including hospitals and power grids. The next major conflict may not be fought with conventional or even nuclear weapons but rather in space or within virtual realms. This evolution underscores the urgent need for robust cybersecurity strategies and international cooperation to prevent catastrophic disruptions. The line between physical and digital security is blurring, and organizations must adapt quickly to this new reality.
Finally, it is impossible to conclude without addressing the perilous trajectory of the global climate. This year, climate-related disasters reached such proportions that private insurers now refuse to cover certain regions without government guarantees. The Allianz Risk Barometer ranks climate change as the fifth most significant risk factor, a historic high. The debate is no longer about whether climate change exists but about how to mitigate its effects and, more importantly, how to prepare for them collectively and individually. Adaptation strategies, resilience planning, and sustainable investments are no longer optional; they are imperative. The cost of inaction is becoming painfully clear, and the window for meaningful change is narrowing.
I could have discussed other topics close to my heart, such as demographics, education, or private equity, subjects I have written about on this blog throughout the year. That will have to wait, and I look forward to revisiting these areas in 2026 as we continue these moments of reflection and exchange. Until then, I wish you all a joyful holiday season and a Merry Christmas.